Preparing for the "Big Daddy" of Earthquakes:
Vancouver's 9.0 Megathrust
Abstract
Our project investigates the best way for the City of Vancouver to respond to the earthquake known as “the Big One” that is currently overdue. It is most likely that the main hazards will be the collapsing of buildings and the general devastation of citywide infrastructure, and therefore, preparation is necessary. We have thus determined the areas in the city that are the safest in the event of a large magnitude earthquake based on geology, slope, elevation, building age, and population density and have located several buildings in which large groups of displaced individuals could congregate for emergency relief services.
We obtained our data from Statistics Canada, BC Energy & Mines, the City of Vancouver’s Open Data Catalogue, and UBC Geography. We georeferenced the data ourselves and projected each shapefile to UTM Zone 10 Coordinate System under the Transverse Mercator Projection System.
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The best estimate we have is a 10 to 15 percent chance of a megathrust event within the next 50 years. But there are huge uncertainties. It could happen later this afternoon.
John Cassidy, Head of Earthquake Seismology, Geological Survey of Canada
In other words, Vancouver isn’t facing the prospect of the big one, but the big ones. Adding up our multiple seismic threats—crustal, deep, and megathrust—there’s a one-in-four chance of a major, destructive earthquake striking in the next 50 years. This isn’t a worst-case scenario. It’s the consensus among the country’s leading seismologists. And nothing keeps them up at night quite like the big daddy, the full-on 9.0 megathrust.
Remy Scalza
